NEW DELHI: Economists worldwide are evenly divided on the prospects for the economy, with equal shares of 45 per cent finding a global recession this year likely or unlikely, but India figures among the economies most likely to benefit from supply-chain changes, a survey showed on Tuesday.
In its latest Chief Economists Outlook, the World Economic Forum said economists expect both growth and inflation dynamics to vary widely across regions.
On the economic policy front, 72 per cent predict proactive industrial policy to become an increasingly widespread phenomenon over the next three years.
Although a majority do not see recent financial-sector disruption as a sign of systemic vulnerability, further bank failures and turbulence are considered likely this year.
Showing divergent regional dynamics, the most buoyant activity is expected in Asia, with China’s reopening expected to drive a significant rebound for the country and to bolster activity across the continent.
More than 90 per cent of the chief economists expected at least moderate growth in both East Asia and Pacific and South Asia.
At the other end of the spectrum, three-quarters of the chief economists still expect weak or very weak growth in Europe. In the US, respondents were more optimistic in March-April than in January but are still divided on the outlook, with US growth prospects clouded by heightened uncertainty on financial stability and the likely pace and extent of monetary tightening.
According to the quarterly survey, conducted during March-April 2023 among the WEF’s Community of Chief Economists, the regions most likely to benefit from supply-chain changes are South Asia, East Asia and Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the US.
When asked to name specific economies that are likely to benefit, among those repeatedly cited were: Vietnam, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and Poland.