NEW DELHI: Amid growing concerns over El Nino impacting the monsoon in India, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) today predicted a normal monsoon for the country. It said rainfall during the southwest monsoon would be 96 per cent of the long period average (LPA) — 87 cm.
The IMD said an LPA of 96 to 100 per cent was viewed as normal while 90 to 95 was considered below normal.
“The forecast based on the dynamical and statistical models suggests that quantitatively, the monsoon rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus/minus 5 per cent,” it said.
However, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana and parts of Himachal Pradesh were likely to witness below-normal rainfall this monsoon, the IMD said.
Only Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala and some parts of Arunachal Pradesh would witness above-normal rainfall while the rest of the country was likely to witness normal rainfall. IMD chief M Mohapatra cited three major reasons for a normal monsoon forecast: Neutral condition over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, positive Indian Ocean dipole; and lower snow cover over the northern Himalayas as well as Eurasia. “These three conditions are conducive to a normal monsoon,” Mohapatra said.
Asked about the impact of El Nino, the IMD chief said, “The latest climate model forecast indicates that El Nino conditions likely to develop during the monsoon may impact rain only during the second half of the season.”